Howard Dean vs. Phil Scott? Yes, Please!
A competitive statewide race is just what VT Republicans need to shake off malaise.
Howard Dean made news the other day when he reminded Vermonters he was still alive. The dude is bumping up against the actuarial tables at 76, after all, and anyone born the last year Dean held public office is now of legal age to drink, which would come in handy if the increasingly radicalized Leftist activist returned to power. Nevertheless, Vermont Democrats not seeming to relish the thought of Brenda Siegal II, Here We Go Again! are all abuzz with excitement that the old Doc is ready to come out retirement to take on, well, the most popular governor in the United States. Heeeeyaaaaaa!
I too am excited! Dean will get his butt kicked, which will be fun to watch and reason enough to attaboy this decision. But more importantly, as a well-funded, big-name headliner, he will force Phil Scott to campaign. For real.
I’ve heard some pundits on the Republican side worry that if Phil has a race, it could take money away from down ticket candidates for the state House and Senate. To this I reply, what money? If anything, a race that forces Phil Scott to raise and spend, organize a ground game to get out the vote, and loudly make the case for why Vermonters should elect Republicans (cough, cough 14% property tax increase… 70 cent carbon tax on heating fuel… unaffordable housing costs…) it will benefit down ticket Republicans who, let’s face it, don’t raise a whole lot of cash on their own anyway, and could really use the coattails of a Phil Scott funded campaign infrastructure.
Howard Dean, on the other hand, might just excite in-state Democrat donors with enough (false) hope of knocking off the otherwise immortal Scott to the point where they pour their money into his (losing) campaign at the expense of their own down ticket candidates. Democrats already have, hat tip to ‘em, a solid machine. They don’t need Dean’s help there.
Dean, of course, has the kind of Rolodex that can attract a lot of out of state money, but Vermont already sees quite a bit of left-wing cash pouring into our state through activist groups with national ties. There might be more of it as a result of a Dean candidacy, but given the laws of diminishing returns it won’t dramatically change the political landscape.
On the other hand, Scott hasn’t needed of out of state money since his first run for governor, and since then it hasn’t come in. That will change if Dean is the challenger. The RGA and other PACs will ramp up activity in the Green Mountain State, and that could be a game changer. When I chaired the VTGOP during the 2008 election, Governor Jim Douglas secured a half a million dollars for the Party to assist in down ticket races because he knew high turnout in local races would boost his own vote totals in what was shaping up to be a Blue Wave year – and he was thinking about his ability to sustain a veto. (Yes, Phil, if you’re reading, that’s a suggestion not just an entertaining little anecdote!)
Make no mistake, Vermont Democrats will outspend Republicans in 2024 by wide margins, but an activated, motivated, supercharged Phil Scott campaign has the potential to better – not even, but better – the odds for underdog down ticket Republicans. It changes the dynamic from fighting something with nothing, to fighting something with something. So, go for it, Howard!
In a good sign, Phil Scott announced he will be attending the VTGOP convention on May 18th. Scott has kept his distance from state party events, and hopefully this is an olive branch he’s offering to his more conservative detractors (of which I often count myself as one before considering the sobering alternatives) recognizing that he does in fact need the Party -- and more House and Senate Republicans – if he wants his popularity to translate into relevancy.
The big question is will Scott’s intraparty critics accept the olive branch and welcome home the prodigal son. I certainly hope so. If the United States and the Soviet Union could put aside their differences long enough to defeat the Nazis, the conservative and moderate wings of the VTGOP should be able to come together for six months to take on Vermont Progressive Democrat Supermajority before they tax and regulate us out of our homes. Priorities, people. Priorities.
Rob Roper is a freelance writer with 20 years of experience in Vermont politics including three years service as chair of the Vermont Republican Party and nine years as President of the Ethan Allen Institute, Vermont’s free market think tank.
Media Notes: Rob Roper will be on WVMT’s Morning Drive on Wednesday, May 29, 8 - 9 am. Tune in at 620AM, 96.3FM, or streaming HERE.
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Some progressives will vote for Scott because a Republican with no veto is preferable to a Democrat with one.
A governor just impedes the socialist will of the people!
I wish I could share your optimism about this possibility. I don't even consider Scott to be a moderate. He's more liberal than the late Joe Lieberman, a moderate Democrat. He's signed on to permanent mail in voting with zero audit trail and he's signed onto late term abortions, among other far left ideas nominally based in compassion but better associated with evil. He's far out of the mainstream (far to the left) of the entire country on these issues. For years, people like Bernie have been getting away with telling voters that there's a free lunch and the billionaires paying their fair share is all we need. (Bernie is undeterred by the fact that Vermont isn't really home to many billionaires). Certainly the current leadership of VT GOP is not committed to a bold vision to counter the Bernie narrative - all Scott/Dame offer is slightly less crazy liberalism. I will not be donating a single penny to a party that has Scott at the top of the ticket. I think enough Vermont voters have fallen for Bernie's schtick that if they have the opportunity to bring in Dean as the real deal liberal, they will go all in on the crazy. If Dean is the guy, I think he'll beat Scott easily and maybe then the state will hit the rock bottom it deserves.