UNH Poll Analysis: Some Democrats are More Equal than Others

Robbing Peter to pay Paul gets thumbs up from Paul. Has Peter had enough?

The University of New Hampshire released a poll (The Green Mountain State Poll) on how Vermonters feel about the economy, taxes and the high cost of living, and while an overwhelming majority of Republicans think it stinks and is getting worse, and a majority of Independents tend to agree, 25% of Democrats said, “Nah, things are way cool!” Or sentiments to that effect.

In an interview with VT Digger, Andrew Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire’s Survey Center, attributed the partisan disparities to a growing political tribalism. When your team is in office, things are good. When the other team is in office, things are bad regardless of what the actual data says. “It’s partially rational, but it’s really not,” explained Smith.

In some cases, yes, it’s emotional, but in too many cases, no, it’s quite rational. And greedy.  

I agree that tribalism and identity politics is playing a much larger and extremely unhealthy role in politics today, especially if you are insulated from the consequences of the policies you advocate for due to high wealth or youthful dependence on others for food and shelter, and this no doubt shades some voters’ views on the state of the economy.

However, here in Vermont (and elsewhere) it is increasingly the case that who wins political elections matters a great deal for some folks’ standard of living. For this chunk of the population, politics isn’t at all like the highly emotional but real-world irrelevant “allegiance to their preferred sports team,” as Smith asserts. It’s more like sports gambling and their rent is riding on the outcome of the game.

What am I getting at here? There is a huge segment of our economy that is dependent upon government – including, well, the government -- and the tax revenue that it generates for their ability to live, often lucratively, at others’ expense.

For example, if you are a property owner, the recent rapid runup of your property tax bills by the Democrat supermajority probably has you reeling, pessimistic about the future, and wondering how you’re going to continue to afford living in our state – and rationally so! But if you are one of the 19,078 public school employees (serving less than 80,000 kids; a number dropping as fast as test scores), then Vermont Democrats shoveling another $200 plus million on top of the already $2 billion flowing into your economic sandbox via the property tax increase is a rational cause for celebration. In the Democrats’ rob Peter to pay Paul game, you’re Paul! Woo hoo! Jackpot.

Similar dynamics exist for Vermont’s 8000 state employees, the 8800 employees of UVM Medical Center, which is a de facto government institution, and the estimated 18,900 people work in so-called “green” jobs, many of which are highly dependent upon taxpayer subsidies and mandates that customers buy their products whether we want them or not.  Vermont has more non-profit employees per capita than anyplace, and many of those organizations are dependent upon taxpayer funded grants. In a state that can expect about 350,000 people to vote in the upcoming election, this coalition of tax eaters represents a large percentage of those ballots.

And, let’s face it, I know I’m painting with a broad brush here and in doing so am not being fair to some, but by and large these people are not voting Republican. And it’s not because they’re chasing that Superbowl-like high when the guys in the blue jerseys score the winning touchdown. It’s because they know that for the two years following locker room champaign party the guys in the blue jerseys are going to go to work syphoning the money in their neighbors’ bank accounts into their own.

So, when UNH discovers 25% of Vermont Democrats report their household financial condition is better today than it was a year ago, I’d bet this is who that 25% is largely made up of. The higher our tax burden, the more loot they get to divvy up, and, yeah, they are definitely better off today than they were a year ago!

But as for the 20% of Democrats who find themselves in the same boat as the 47% of Independents and 70% of Republicans who report being worse off financially under Democrat Supermajority rule, I bet those are the ones who are just along for the ideological ride, rooting for the “blue no matter who.” They pay the taxes; they don’t pocket them. And the ticket to that game is getting mighty expensive.

For them, the thrill of “saving the planet” doesn’t come with a paycheck from Efficiency Vermont or SunCommon, it will come with a $3 per gallon surcharge on their home heating bill. Being “for the children” doesn’t mean paid summers off plus two weeks at Christmas and another at spring break, it means you’re paying something like $8000 instead of $6000 in property taxes this year and a new payroll tax is being deducted from your salary.

At some point the Democrat voters who are not in on the electoral pay day – or as Orwell would describe them, the animals who are less equal than others -- are going to wake up and realize exactly what that substance on the end of the stick they’re holding really is. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

• Rob Roper is a freelance writer with 20 years of experience in Vermont politics including three years service as chair of the Vermont Republican Party and nine years as President of the Ethan Allen Institute, Vermont’s free market think tank.

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Media Notes: Rob Roper will be speaking at the Ludlow Town Hall Auditorium on Wednesday, September 4th, at 5:00 pm as part of the Strong Vermont Voices series.

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